Friday, July 3, 2015

CONTACT DHL.your Package Code (GL-1416)

I have paid the required fee for your Bank Draft and i took it to the FINANCIAL BANK PLC to confirm it then the Manager of the Bank MR BENARD UGO told me that before the CHEQUE will get to you it will expire on the way and if it expired it will become useless to you, so He advice me to convert USD$8.5m (EIGHT MILLION FIVE HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS) into cash and pack it into the strong iron box and deposit it in DHL COURIER SERVICE to deliver it in cash to you.and i did it as he advice me because he is a banker he knows the durability of any foreign Bank Draft or Cheque.I deposited the said package in the Dhl Delivery Company as an Cotton materials for security reasons, your $8.5 which was suppose to release into your account has been channel through delivering company do to some requirement from the bank which makes it impossible for you to receive your fund.

This is the registration Number of your Package ( dhl/122p/mtm/2007) Zip Code (0113388)So do not let the company to know the real contents of the package so that they can deliver it for you safely.I want you to contact the company immediately with the following information although i give them your information but you need to reconfirm it for them.Below is the required

infomation you need to give them now.

1.YOUR FULL NAME..........
2. HOME ADDRESS.........
4. YOUR CELPHONENUMBER................
7.YOUR COUNTRY...............

All these is needed from you now to submit to the company for urgent delivery of your package contains $8.5million usd Please contact the delivery company immediately and reconfirm your infor to them to enable their agent locate you when he arrived in your country.

This is the company contact info.

Director- John Mensah
E-mail ( )
Ph- +229 6861 8737
Director General,Dhl Delivery Company Benin Republic.

Please contact the company immediately you receive this email so that your package will leave tonight to be deliver to you. Like i stated earlier, The delivery charges has been paid but i did not pay their official keeping fees since they refused. They refused and the reason is that they do not know when you are going to contact them and dumurrage might have increase.

Mrs Helen Oscar

The Daily Shot; July 3 - Global Macro Currents

The Daily Shot

July 3d, 2015


Once again let's begin with the United States where we had another decent payrolls report for June. The private sector added 223K jobs (vs. 225K expected). The markets viewed the report as a disappointment however. Here are a couple of reasons:

1. The long-awaited pickup in wage growth has not materialized. Wages are increasing at just over 2% per year. Does this look like the US is experiencing wage pressures?
The next chart shows wages for "production and nonsupervisory employees" - with an even lower growth rate.
2. The second disappointing component of the report was the labor force participation rate, which is now at the lowest level since 1977. There are many reasons for the latest declines, including aging population, higher college enrollment rates, etc. Some have suggested that Obamacare contributed to this trend, with subsidized health plans discouraging some from entering the workforce. Whatever the case, this is not a great result.
Below are several other notable items from the employment report:

1. Duration of unemployment fell sharply. Nevertheless, this measure remains highly elevated relative to history.
The chart for the percentage of long-term unemployed looks similar of course.
2. The next chart is the difference between the so-called U-6 and U-3 unemployment rates. This difference provides a measure of "marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons". Again, the indicator is elevated but falling.
3. Government employment has stalled. Note that the spikes in the chart below represent temporary census workers hired in 2000 and 2010.
4. The oil and gas sector continues to lose jobs - which is having a meaningful drag on the overall labor markets. 
Turning to China, we have the Shanghai Composite down 36% since June 11th. That's some painful margin calls on the way down.
Of course this has nothing to do with leveraged speculative frenzy we've seen this year. Brokers, investors, the government blame "manipulators" and "short sellers" for panic selloff and ask Beijing to "rescue" the market. 
Reuters:  - "The government must rescue the market, not with empty words, but with real silver and gold," said Fu Xuejun, strategist at Huarong Securities Co, adding that a market crash would hurt banks, consumption, companies and even trigger social instability. "It's a disaster. If it's not, what is it?"
Not a disaster. Just a bubble bursting. The equity market selloff has now spilled over into the commodity markets - particularly iron ore and steel (markets that were vulnerable to begin with).

Iron ore futures:
Source: barchart
Hot-rolled coil and steel rebar futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange:
Source: barchart
Source: barchart
Indeed the stock market tumble could do damage to domestic consumption, potentially impacting property prices and retail sales.
Now on to Europe where Sweden's central bank surprised the markets by cutting rates - pushing the benchmark interest rate deeper into negative territory.

Yesterday I mentioned Switzerland struggling with deposit inflows, putting upward pressure on the franc. The inflows are coming from the Eurozone as the Greek crisis escalates.

Sweden has a similar problem and Riksbank decided to act.
Source: Riksbank
Riksbank's move sent the krona sharply lower (EUR higher vs. SEK). It remains to be seen if this effect will last or if more of euro area's citizens move cash into non-euro bank accounts. 
In the UK house price appreciation moderates to a more sustainable level. My guess it should stabilize around the rate of wage growth.
Source: @fastFT
In the Eurozone we have the IMF announcing on Thursday that the Greek situation will become increasingly more expensive for the lender institutions going forward - no matter what the outcome of the referendum will be.
Source: The Guardian
Of course as I discussed yesterday, it's unclear what exactly the Greeks are going to vote for (or against) this weekend. Madness.
Source: The Washington Post
The Greek vote battle lines have been drawn across social media. Below is the Twitter activity involving "#Oxi" ("#No" in Greek).
Switching to the energy markets, crude oil turned decisively weaker in the last few days. Both fundamental and technical factors are not great.
Source: barchart
For the first time since December US rig count increased. This has to be making the Saudis uneasy.
Source: @SoberLook, Baker Hughes
Upstream oil and gas companies' shares are under pressure again.
It's interesting to see the BDC (business development companies) market turn sharply lower as well. Investors perceive BDCs as having a material exposure to energy credit (not clear why).
Source: barchart
We have two other items worth mentioning in the commodities markets.

1. New Zealand milk futures continue to fall as the market remains oversupplied. This is going to create a visible drag on New Zealand's GDP growth.
Milk overproduction is an issue in the US as well.
Source: @BNCommodities
2. US corn futures spike on lower inventories and delayed planting.
Finally, we see deal volume in the US is heating up. June IPO activity was the highest since 2000.
Source: @vexmark
Moreover, US M&A volumes are hitting new highs.
Source: @fastFT
Now,  Food for Thought - 5 items:

1. Remember the kids' movie "Frozen"? It had quite an effect on many new parents as well.
Source: @FactTank  
2. Immigrant population by country. In the long run, nations closer to the bottom of this chart will grow faster.
Source: @OECD_Social
3. Republicans have an uphill battle in the 2016 election. Whoever is nominated will need to be a centrist in order to have a strong chance of winning in the general election.
4. Greeks will be battling poverty no matter how things turn out. Children are at greatest risk.
Source: ‏ ‏@markets
5. Speaking of Greece, this is the movie we are all going to see.
Source: ‏ ‏@NorthmanTrader
The next Shot will be out on Monday the 6th. Have a great weekend!
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